After reading a ridiculous paper modeling the economic cost of the current corona pandemic, I decided to build my subjective corona infection prediction model. I simulate new cases in German over one year (starting 2020-04-01). Germany has now registered 77,776 infections.
What will happen over the next 52 weeks? We will see…
I bet on an outcome between the 1% and 99% percentile.
To learn about the model (and parameters), study the R code on GitHub.
Update 2021-04-01:
Let’s see how good my prediction from one year ago was …
My median prediction was pretty close, as I landed in the 49.2% quantile.
To summarize, I guess, I won my bet. Just my confidence level was unnecessarily large.